The Anatomy of a Hot 100 Race
Accurate as of 2020 Chart Year
Whether you’re rooting for an underdog, want to secure a presumptive leader’s margin, or just are pushing an organic grower, the rules of engagement are a relative constant.
Report by
@Trot100News
In recent years, streaming has become the bedrock of Hot 100 points, so much so that it’s had controls put on it over the years.
Most recently, they split the metric into tiers.
In descending order of weight:
Tier 1: Premium on-demand audio and video streams
Tier 2: Free/ad-supported on-demand audio and official video streams
Tier 3: Online radio and Song-UGC video streams
Online radio are services like Pandora, specifically tiers in which you cannot select a song or playlist where you know the contents.
UGC stands for User Generated Content, and only clips that have a significant portion of the song (believed to be 30 seconds) are eligible.
This is the most influenceable metric as, even if you aren’t willing to make direct purchases, you can still contribute to Tier 2 and Tier 3 streams.
If you are in that situation and want to make the most impact:
-Lean towards uploads on official channels on YouTube of the song you prefer. If the music video has interludes or sound effects, there will usually be an audio-only upload to accommodate YouTube Music.
-If you *really* like a song, taking a trial on select on-demand services will have plays registered as Tier 1 because they comp labels as if you were a paying customer. You can only do this once, we do not endorse or give platform to any ways to circumvent this.
If you are a paying customer and want to maximize impact:
-Don’t use the repeat toggle. Enough people have tried to leave songs on loop while not engaging that both the streaming services and the data collection service will assume it’s fraudulent.
-If you’re on a platform with music videos and it has the video you like of the song you like, watch it there instead of on YouTube (unless of course you’re a paying customer of YouTube Music).
Radio has the second largest slice of the pie. In the midst of the pandemic, as of this writing, however, its share of the Hot 100 has grown to match and occasionally exceed streaming’s mainly owing to the latter’s decline.
It’s the least influenceable of the metrics directly because it’s based on audience impressions, not plays. Thus, stations in big markets hold more sway, and their playlists are far more rigid and less open to requests (or you’ll only be able to request from a small pool).
Sales is the smallest in terms of market share at the moment, but because of that, it has the strongest weight. Labels have taken notice of this in recent years and have leveraged this with bundle campaigns and occasionally digital discounts.
The metric is measured solely through copies, so if a song starts the week at $1.29 and dips to $0.69 (or spends the whole week at the latter price), it’ll affect the chart the same no matter when you purchased it.
The only advice we have for maximum impact is a synthesis with streaming.
If the platform you buy from is also the platform you’re a paid streaming customer on (e.g. Google Music, Apple Music), stream the song for the tracking week, then on the last tracking day, before midnight Eastern, purchase the song.
If a discount was applied during the week, you’ll benefit from it as opposed to buying sight unseen day 1, and the streams will still impact at Tier 1.
The only other notes are cautions in ways you may try to maximize impact that won’t work or worse:
-If you are not situated in the US, do not use a VPN or spoof an address for a bundle order. These copies/streams are eliminated in the vetting process and are fraudulent.
If you post evidence of having done the above, that could potentially be evidence of a crime in your jurisdiction, and if you bring it up in our circle, you will receive a block and a reporting.
-Sending digital copies to friends via the gifting function on storefronts does not add sales to the count because they are unsolicited.
-When a physical/digital bundle is available, bulk buying to some unknown extent will actually nullify your copies towards the total.
Basically, if something seems like an excessive waste of money, it likely will be.
We hope this thread helped lay out all the facets a music fan would want to know for chart purposes, regardless of which horse they have in any given race.
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Billboard Hot 100 Chart Formula And Point Calculations
Formula
The Billboard Hot 100 ranks songs by weighting the number of sales, streams, and radio airplay audience they receive throughout a tracking week. Billboard gets their numbers from Nielsen, which is highly accurate, but whose information is not freely available to the public.
We can estimate the positions of the next Hot 100 before Billboard publishes it by estimating each song's chart points using a variety of sources and an estimated formula. We can also far more accurately estimate a song's points when Billboard reveals the official numbers (which is always the case for the #1 song).
Billboard splits streams into "paid", "free", and "programmed/passive" streams with a weighting ratio of around 1:0.67:0.5.
Sales / 5
Paid streams / 1,250
Free streams / 1,875
Programmed or UGC streams / 2,500
Airplay / 6,000 (using Billboard's Radio Songs numbers)
However, estimating paid vs free is very difficult regarding on-demand streaming. So to make it easier, you can use:
Sales / 5
On-demand streams / 1,333 (includes "free" streams, so weighted a bit lower)
Official YouTube streams / 1,875
UGC YouTube streams / 2,500
Programmed streams / 2,500
Airplay / 6,000
Depending on the song's streaming sources, the 1,333 on-demand divisor can vary. For songs strong on Apple/Amazon Music, it's lower due to a signficantly higher proportion of paid streams. A value around 1,300 may be suitable for such songs. For songs stronger on Spotify, which includes free streams, it may be 1,350.
Sources
Sales
- hitsdailydouble.com/song_revenue_chart weekly (accurate)
- kworb.net/pop/ iTunes live
On-demand streams
- hitsdailydouble.com/song_revenue_chart weekly (very accurate, but updates the following week)
- hitsdailydouble.com/streaming_songs weekly
- spotifycharts.com/regional/us/daily/latest Spotify
- kworb.net/charts/apple_s/us.html Apple Music
Pop = 50-55% Spotify
Urban = 30-45% Spotify
These numbers are only rough guidelines for new songs - check the ratio between Spotify Weekly Chart and HDD Chart for existing songs for accuracy.
YouTube streams
- charts.youtube.com/charts/TopSongs/us YouTube weekly
- kworb.net/youtube/insights/us_daily.html YouTube past 2 days
- kworb.net/youtube/realtime_anglo.html YouTube live (single video)
This component is made up of two separately weighted factors: official videos (uploaded by the artist or label, e.g. Audio, Video, Lyric), and UGC videos (uploaded by fan/lyric channels, etc).
NOTE: Billboard appears to discard many YouTube streams currently, including official streams. For example, "The Box" had 41.4m streams on the 03/28/2020 chart, with an estimated 27.8m on-demand streams, 20.9m YouTube streams (at least 10.6m of those being official), and 3.5m programmed streams. However, only about 10.1m (48%) YouTube streams appeared to count. Theories include YouTube counting some invalid UGC (e.g. live performances), autoplays not counting at all, stricter criteria for length of streaming, among other factors. Therefore the YouTube chart is not reliable at face value for estimating streams that Nielsen tracks.
My own technique is to multiply estimated official streams by 0.6, and the remaining streams (UGC) by 0.3-0.4. Songs that are more likely to get posted by random lyric channels with high views (where autoplay seems to be a large factor) are closer to 0.3.
"I Love Me" had 14.2m streams according to Billboard, with 10.7m on-demand streams, 5.3m official YouTube streams, negligible UGC streams, and 0.3m programmed streams. This means 3.2m (60%) streams were counted on YouTube, providing credence to the 0.6x "official stream" multiplier.
Programmed streams
- www.nextbigsound.com/ Pandora (requires sign up. Search for the artist and choose "Pandora Radio Spins"). Likely accounts for vast majority of programmed streams.
Radio airplay
- kworb.net/radio/
Airplay has a separate tracking week (Mon-Sun) than Sales & Streaming (Fri-Thu).
Use Monday numbers.
For debuting songs' airplay estimates, be aware of the "8th day effect" where the cumulative audience drops on the 8th day due to first-day radio deals. e.g. if a lead single debuted with 14m audience and was gaining 3m AI every day, then its 8th day effect will be around -11.
NOTE: Billboard's Radio Songs numbers are much smaller than Mediabase numbers.
The multiplier can be anywhere from 0.65–0.80, with an average of around 0.72. The range is unfortunately large, so you need to adjust it based on the Radio Songs chart provided by Billboard, and it can fluctuate for a certain song week to week, but usually by less than 0.01.
e.g. 80,000,000 on Mediabase will be around 58,000,000 (0.725x) by Billboard's Radio Songs numbers. But some songs may be closer to 0.74, and others 0.71, or lower/higher. You need to refer to the previous charts or numbers given out by Billboard. In addition, format tracking changes can influence the multiplier. If a song gains a format on Kworb's chart, its multiplier will likely be lower from that point on.
Here are some debuting songs' multipliers vs. Mediabase:
"Stupid Love": 23.7m (Billboard) vs. 33.60m (Monday Mediabase) = 0.705
"I Love Me": 15.9m (Billboard) vs. 22.49m (Monday Mediabase) = 0.707 (gained a format on that day)
Example
Billboard Hot 100: 03/28/2020
"The Box"
Sales = 8.0k (via Billboard)
Streams = 41.4m (via Billboard)
Radio airplay = 65.0m (via Billboard)
On-demand streams = 27.8m (via Song Revenue Chart)
Official YouTube streams = 6.5m (0.6x Official)
UGC YouTube streams = 3.6m (0.35x Remaining)
Programmed streams = 3.5m (via Pandora Radio Spins)
8,000/5 + 27,800,000/1,300 + 6,500,000/1,875 + 3,600,000/2,500 + 3,500,000/2,500 + 65,000,000/6,000
40,100 points
The Billboard Hot 100 ranks songs by weighting the number of sales, streams, and radio airplay audience they receive throughout a tracking week. Billboard gets their numbers from Nielsen, which is highly accurate, but whose information is not freely available to the public.
We can estimate the positions of the next Hot 100 before Billboard publishes it by estimating each song's chart points using a variety of sources and an estimated formula. We can also far more accurately estimate a song's points when Billboard reveals the official numbers (which is always the case for the #1 song).
Billboard splits streams into "paid", "free", and "programmed/passive" streams with a weighting ratio of around 1:0.67:0.5.
Sales / 5
Paid streams / 1,250
Free streams / 1,875
Programmed or UGC streams / 2,500
Airplay / 6,000 (using Billboard's Radio Songs numbers)
However, estimating paid vs free is very difficult regarding on-demand streaming. So to make it easier, you can use:
Sales / 5
On-demand streams / 1,333 (includes "free" streams, so weighted a bit lower)
Official YouTube streams / 1,875
UGC YouTube streams / 2,500
Programmed streams / 2,500
Airplay / 6,000
Depending on the song's streaming sources, the 1,333 on-demand divisor can vary. For songs strong on Apple/Amazon Music, it's lower due to a signficantly higher proportion of paid streams. A value around 1,300 may be suitable for such songs. For songs stronger on Spotify, which includes free streams, it may be 1,350.
Sources
Sales
- hitsdailydouble.com/song_revenue_chart weekly (accurate)
- kworb.net/pop/ iTunes live
On-demand streams
- hitsdailydouble.com/song_revenue_chart weekly (very accurate, but updates the following week)
- hitsdailydouble.com/streaming_songs weekly
- spotifycharts.com/regional/us/daily/latest Spotify
- kworb.net/charts/apple_s/us.html Apple Music
Pop = 50-55% Spotify
Urban = 30-45% Spotify
These numbers are only rough guidelines for new songs - check the ratio between Spotify Weekly Chart and HDD Chart for existing songs for accuracy.
YouTube streams
- charts.youtube.com/charts/TopSongs/us YouTube weekly
- kworb.net/youtube/insights/us_daily.html YouTube past 2 days
- kworb.net/youtube/realtime_anglo.html YouTube live (single video)
This component is made up of two separately weighted factors: official videos (uploaded by the artist or label, e.g. Audio, Video, Lyric), and UGC videos (uploaded by fan/lyric channels, etc).
NOTE: Billboard appears to discard many YouTube streams currently, including official streams. For example, "The Box" had 41.4m streams on the 03/28/2020 chart, with an estimated 27.8m on-demand streams, 20.9m YouTube streams (at least 10.6m of those being official), and 3.5m programmed streams. However, only about 10.1m (48%) YouTube streams appeared to count. Theories include YouTube counting some invalid UGC (e.g. live performances), autoplays not counting at all, stricter criteria for length of streaming, among other factors. Therefore the YouTube chart is not reliable at face value for estimating streams that Nielsen tracks.
My own technique is to multiply estimated official streams by 0.6, and the remaining streams (UGC) by 0.3-0.4. Songs that are more likely to get posted by random lyric channels with high views (where autoplay seems to be a large factor) are closer to 0.3.
"I Love Me" had 14.2m streams according to Billboard, with 10.7m on-demand streams, 5.3m official YouTube streams, negligible UGC streams, and 0.3m programmed streams. This means 3.2m (60%) streams were counted on YouTube, providing credence to the 0.6x "official stream" multiplier.
Programmed streams
- www.nextbigsound.com/ Pandora (requires sign up. Search for the artist and choose "Pandora Radio Spins"). Likely accounts for vast majority of programmed streams.
Radio airplay
- kworb.net/radio/
Airplay has a separate tracking week (Mon-Sun) than Sales & Streaming (Fri-Thu).
Use Monday numbers.
For debuting songs' airplay estimates, be aware of the "8th day effect" where the cumulative audience drops on the 8th day due to first-day radio deals. e.g. if a lead single debuted with 14m audience and was gaining 3m AI every day, then its 8th day effect will be around -11.
NOTE: Billboard's Radio Songs numbers are much smaller than Mediabase numbers.
The multiplier can be anywhere from 0.65–0.80, with an average of around 0.72. The range is unfortunately large, so you need to adjust it based on the Radio Songs chart provided by Billboard, and it can fluctuate for a certain song week to week, but usually by less than 0.01.
e.g. 80,000,000 on Mediabase will be around 58,000,000 (0.725x) by Billboard's Radio Songs numbers. But some songs may be closer to 0.74, and others 0.71, or lower/higher. You need to refer to the previous charts or numbers given out by Billboard. In addition, format tracking changes can influence the multiplier. If a song gains a format on Kworb's chart, its multiplier will likely be lower from that point on.
Here are some debuting songs' multipliers vs. Mediabase:
"Stupid Love": 23.7m (Billboard) vs. 33.60m (Monday Mediabase) = 0.705
"I Love Me": 15.9m (Billboard) vs. 22.49m (Monday Mediabase) = 0.707 (gained a format on that day)
Example
Billboard Hot 100: 03/28/2020
"The Box"
Sales = 8.0k (via Billboard)
Streams = 41.4m (via Billboard)
Radio airplay = 65.0m (via Billboard)
On-demand streams = 27.8m (via Song Revenue Chart)
Official YouTube streams = 6.5m (0.6x Official)
UGC YouTube streams = 3.6m (0.35x Remaining)
Programmed streams = 3.5m (via Pandora Radio Spins)
8,000/5 + 27,800,000/1,300 + 6,500,000/1,875 + 3,600,000/2,500 + 3,500,000/2,500 + 65,000,000/6,000
40,100 points
Friday, May 15, 2020
US Billboard Hot 100 - Highlights - May 16, 2020
Billboard Hot 100 - Dated May 16, 2020
In what turned out to be a photo finish, we’ve got a new top 2 set along with a piece of album bomb action and a returning top 10!
Report by @Trot100News on Twitter
1 (+5). Say So by Doja Cat ft. Nicki Minaj
Prior official projections overestimated the margins (possible due to more aggressive vetting), but the song rises a lead on sales and radio to victory!
66,000 sales (+966%)
96.2m radio (+6%)
30.3m streams (+87%)
2 (+2). Savage by Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyonce
Taking a handy victory on streaming (including the valuable on-demand audio tier), the gulf on radio was its biggest point dearth to overcome, with sales sealing the deal.
50,000 sales (+90%)
51.3m radio (+27%)
42.1m streams (+53%)
3 (-1). Blinding Lights by The Weeknd
With decent numbers across the board (with radio as a strong suit, up 4% to 114.5m), it’s still surprising to realize that, had the 2 remix campaigns not been deployed, it would’ve been the number one blocking the big album’s single...
4 (-1). Toosie Slide by Drake
Streaming numbers shored up as expected, but sales have remained weak for the track such that it lacks the balance to overcome Blinding Lights. It’s not all bad news for the album in the top 10 though...
5 (=). The Box by Roddy Ricch
The former chart topper, while not in serious contention to return atop, remains stable with strong radio and streams. It may also have a proxy bump from other things the rapper’s up to that have re-entered the zone...
6 (+1). Don’t Start Now by Dua Lipa
Up mainly on having one less competitor than last week (more on that later), this song has firmly reached coast mode, tapering off strong radio and decent sales.
7 (NE). Pain 1993 by Drake and Playboi Carti
The Dark Lane Demo Tapes project does nab a new top 10 hit upon its debut, owed mainly to streaming as expected.
3,000 sales
Negligible radio
31m streams
8 (=). Circles by Post Malone
This song actually stabilized on radio this week, still in what is referred to as “power rotation”.
9 (+5). Rockstar by DaBaby and Roddy Ricch
With marked gains across the board, the song returns right back to its peak a mere week after leaving the zone.
9,000 sales (+36%)
5.7m radio (+136%)
28.3m streams (+17%)
10 (-1). Intentions by Justin Bieber and Quavo
The song took a hit on on-demand, though its radio prevents it from taking a nasty fall just yet.
12 (-11). The Scotts by Travis Scott & Kid Cudi
Joining the rare club of songs that depart the top 10 immediately after coronation, the combination of no more bundles, lack of radio traction, and a debut hyped by a current event made this somewhat predictable.
The rest of the Drake project-bomb:
14. Chicago Freestyle feat. Giveon
19. D4L ft. Future & Young Thug
25. Not You Too feat. Chris Brown
27. Desires feat. Future
30. Time Flies
32. Deep Pockets
34. Demons feat. Fivion Foreign & Sosa Geek
35. When to Say When
39. Landed
45. From Florida With Love
51. Losses
52. War
The entire contents of the project debuted on the Hot 100, with 11 of the 14 songs established as hits on the book!
20 (+3). Roses by Saint Jhn & Imanbek
With this ascent, Roses is the first song classed by Billboard as Dance/Electronic in the top 20 since Lady Gaga’s Stupid Love’s debut and the first to *climb* into the top 20 since Marshmello & Bastille's Happier!
29 (NE). Be Kind by Marshmello & Halsey
The top debut not from an album/project-bomb this week, this track starts swinging on radio, with strong sales and a solid streaming start pointing to growth potential once the bombs subside.
The swath of debuts took several songs off the list permanently, though they’re all slated to make the year-end rank:
Roxanne by Arizona Zervas (LW: 33, WO: 26)
Heartless by The Weeknd (LW: 37, WO: 23)
10,000 Hours by Dan + Shay and Justin Bieber (LW: 46, WO: 30)
In addition, the returning entries from Travis Scott’s FortNite concert, Highest in the Room (LW: 38, WO: 22) and Goosebumps (LW: 49, WO: 35) slip back into recurrency as expected. The former further secured its spot on the year-end.
The deluxe release of Lil Baby’s My Turn prompted a mini-bomb on the chart:
56 (+15). Emotionally Scarred
57 (-4). Sum 2 Prove
61. We Paid with 42 Dugg
65. Social Distancing
81. Low Down
86. Humble
88 (RE). Grace with 42 Dugg
96 (RE). Heatin’ Up with Gunna
68 (+5). Here and Now by Kenny Chesney
Hailing from the top album this week, that push was focused on raw sales and not streaming, so this is the only representative on the Hot 100, though it’s one of the few risers this week amidst the giant bombs!
Speaking of, here are the remaining gains not mentioned yet in this thread:
64 (+20). Party Girl by StaySolidRocky
74 (+6). Ride It by Regard
Even with the bombs though, there were some notable losses thanks to radio dumping a bundle of songs this week:
69 (-26). More Hearts Than Mine by Ingrid Andress
70 (-28). I Love Me by Demi Lovato
93 (-21). You Should Be Sad by Halsey
XX. Stupid Love by Lady Gaga (LW: 61, WO: 9)
Finally, the remaining debuts not mentioned yet:
58. Six Feet Apart by Luke Combs
87. One Margarita by Luke Bryan
100. Don’t Rush by Young T & Bugsey
See you next week for the next Hot 100 scoop! This is @Trot100News, signing off.
In what turned out to be a photo finish, we’ve got a new top 2 set along with a piece of album bomb action and a returning top 10!
Report by @Trot100News on Twitter
1 (+5). Say So by Doja Cat ft. Nicki Minaj
Prior official projections overestimated the margins (possible due to more aggressive vetting), but the song rises a lead on sales and radio to victory!
66,000 sales (+966%)
96.2m radio (+6%)
30.3m streams (+87%)
2 (+2). Savage by Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyonce
Taking a handy victory on streaming (including the valuable on-demand audio tier), the gulf on radio was its biggest point dearth to overcome, with sales sealing the deal.
50,000 sales (+90%)
51.3m radio (+27%)
42.1m streams (+53%)
3 (-1). Blinding Lights by The Weeknd
With decent numbers across the board (with radio as a strong suit, up 4% to 114.5m), it’s still surprising to realize that, had the 2 remix campaigns not been deployed, it would’ve been the number one blocking the big album’s single...
4 (-1). Toosie Slide by Drake
Streaming numbers shored up as expected, but sales have remained weak for the track such that it lacks the balance to overcome Blinding Lights. It’s not all bad news for the album in the top 10 though...
5 (=). The Box by Roddy Ricch
The former chart topper, while not in serious contention to return atop, remains stable with strong radio and streams. It may also have a proxy bump from other things the rapper’s up to that have re-entered the zone...
6 (+1). Don’t Start Now by Dua Lipa
Up mainly on having one less competitor than last week (more on that later), this song has firmly reached coast mode, tapering off strong radio and decent sales.
7 (NE). Pain 1993 by Drake and Playboi Carti
The Dark Lane Demo Tapes project does nab a new top 10 hit upon its debut, owed mainly to streaming as expected.
3,000 sales
Negligible radio
31m streams
8 (=). Circles by Post Malone
This song actually stabilized on radio this week, still in what is referred to as “power rotation”.
9 (+5). Rockstar by DaBaby and Roddy Ricch
With marked gains across the board, the song returns right back to its peak a mere week after leaving the zone.
9,000 sales (+36%)
5.7m radio (+136%)
28.3m streams (+17%)
10 (-1). Intentions by Justin Bieber and Quavo
The song took a hit on on-demand, though its radio prevents it from taking a nasty fall just yet.
12 (-11). The Scotts by Travis Scott & Kid Cudi
Joining the rare club of songs that depart the top 10 immediately after coronation, the combination of no more bundles, lack of radio traction, and a debut hyped by a current event made this somewhat predictable.
The rest of the Drake project-bomb:
14. Chicago Freestyle feat. Giveon
19. D4L ft. Future & Young Thug
25. Not You Too feat. Chris Brown
27. Desires feat. Future
30. Time Flies
32. Deep Pockets
34. Demons feat. Fivion Foreign & Sosa Geek
35. When to Say When
39. Landed
45. From Florida With Love
51. Losses
52. War
The entire contents of the project debuted on the Hot 100, with 11 of the 14 songs established as hits on the book!
20 (+3). Roses by Saint Jhn & Imanbek
With this ascent, Roses is the first song classed by Billboard as Dance/Electronic in the top 20 since Lady Gaga’s Stupid Love’s debut and the first to *climb* into the top 20 since Marshmello & Bastille's Happier!
29 (NE). Be Kind by Marshmello & Halsey
The top debut not from an album/project-bomb this week, this track starts swinging on radio, with strong sales and a solid streaming start pointing to growth potential once the bombs subside.
The swath of debuts took several songs off the list permanently, though they’re all slated to make the year-end rank:
Roxanne by Arizona Zervas (LW: 33, WO: 26)
Heartless by The Weeknd (LW: 37, WO: 23)
10,000 Hours by Dan + Shay and Justin Bieber (LW: 46, WO: 30)
In addition, the returning entries from Travis Scott’s FortNite concert, Highest in the Room (LW: 38, WO: 22) and Goosebumps (LW: 49, WO: 35) slip back into recurrency as expected. The former further secured its spot on the year-end.
The deluxe release of Lil Baby’s My Turn prompted a mini-bomb on the chart:
56 (+15). Emotionally Scarred
57 (-4). Sum 2 Prove
61. We Paid with 42 Dugg
65. Social Distancing
81. Low Down
86. Humble
88 (RE). Grace with 42 Dugg
96 (RE). Heatin’ Up with Gunna
68 (+5). Here and Now by Kenny Chesney
Hailing from the top album this week, that push was focused on raw sales and not streaming, so this is the only representative on the Hot 100, though it’s one of the few risers this week amidst the giant bombs!
Speaking of, here are the remaining gains not mentioned yet in this thread:
64 (+20). Party Girl by StaySolidRocky
74 (+6). Ride It by Regard
Even with the bombs though, there were some notable losses thanks to radio dumping a bundle of songs this week:
69 (-26). More Hearts Than Mine by Ingrid Andress
70 (-28). I Love Me by Demi Lovato
93 (-21). You Should Be Sad by Halsey
XX. Stupid Love by Lady Gaga (LW: 61, WO: 9)
Finally, the remaining debuts not mentioned yet:
58. Six Feet Apart by Luke Combs
87. One Margarita by Luke Bryan
100. Don’t Rush by Young T & Bugsey
See you next week for the next Hot 100 scoop! This is @Trot100News, signing off.
Canadian Hot 100 - Dated 5/16/20 - Top 10 Highlights
Canadian Hot 100 - Dated 5/16/20 - Top 10 Report
The chart feels the effects of the US promotion, but to a surprisingly lesser extent than you’d expect for the same continent. Also, a certain Canadian blocks a Canadian’s promotional push...
Report by @Trot100News on Twitter
1 (+1). Blinding Lights by The Weeknd
After being dethroned by The Scotts’ hype (more on that later), Blinding Lights returns atop for a sixth total week. This is the only leader from After Hours in Canada, as Heartless was blocked by Dance Monkey.
2 (+2). Toosie Slide by Drake
It was blocked on its debut by The Weeknd, and once more, with a full album push behind it, it gets fended off. There is a whopper of a consolation prize in the top 10 though...
3 (+7). Say So by Doja Cat ft. Nicki Minaj
The song rides the remix wave to a mighty top 5 placement, held off from further due to the crux of promo (the physical/digital bundles) being US only.
6 (-5). The Scotts by Travis Scott & Kid Cudi
Not falling to the extent it did in the US, it’s the only song this week that was a former US top 10, with the only song that hasn’t been a top 10 this week being Roses by Saint Jhn (3-4).
7 (NE). Pain 1993, Drake ft. Playboi Carti
Matching its US start, this track heralds the album bomb, which as expected is stronger than in the US, with all songs placing in the top 50 and all but 2 in the top 40.
13. Chicago Freestyle
17. D4L with Future and Young Thug
21. Demons feat. FivioForeign &Sosa Geek
22. Time Flies
28. Desires feat. Future
29. Not You Too feat. Chris Brown
33. Deep Pockets
34. War
35. Landed
38. When to Say When
43. From Florida With Love
49. Losses
Speaking of top 40 debuts, there’s one other that didn’t pull it off in the US: Luke Combs’ Six Feet Apart, which begins at #36!
9 (+15). Savage, Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyonce
Waylaid by the UGC adjustment, this song had quite further to grow as opposed to its stateside competitor, as its airplay hadn’t reached nearly the same baseline prior to the remix.
10 (+2). Rockstar, DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch
It doesn’t quite reach its debut peak of #8, but like in other English speaking markets, the song has rallied after its dip from the album debut.
The chart feels the effects of the US promotion, but to a surprisingly lesser extent than you’d expect for the same continent. Also, a certain Canadian blocks a Canadian’s promotional push...
Report by @Trot100News on Twitter
1 (+1). Blinding Lights by The Weeknd
After being dethroned by The Scotts’ hype (more on that later), Blinding Lights returns atop for a sixth total week. This is the only leader from After Hours in Canada, as Heartless was blocked by Dance Monkey.
2 (+2). Toosie Slide by Drake
It was blocked on its debut by The Weeknd, and once more, with a full album push behind it, it gets fended off. There is a whopper of a consolation prize in the top 10 though...
3 (+7). Say So by Doja Cat ft. Nicki Minaj
The song rides the remix wave to a mighty top 5 placement, held off from further due to the crux of promo (the physical/digital bundles) being US only.
6 (-5). The Scotts by Travis Scott & Kid Cudi
Not falling to the extent it did in the US, it’s the only song this week that was a former US top 10, with the only song that hasn’t been a top 10 this week being Roses by Saint Jhn (3-4).
7 (NE). Pain 1993, Drake ft. Playboi Carti
Matching its US start, this track heralds the album bomb, which as expected is stronger than in the US, with all songs placing in the top 50 and all but 2 in the top 40.
13. Chicago Freestyle
17. D4L with Future and Young Thug
21. Demons feat. FivioForeign &Sosa Geek
22. Time Flies
28. Desires feat. Future
29. Not You Too feat. Chris Brown
33. Deep Pockets
34. War
35. Landed
38. When to Say When
43. From Florida With Love
49. Losses
Speaking of top 40 debuts, there’s one other that didn’t pull it off in the US: Luke Combs’ Six Feet Apart, which begins at #36!
9 (+15). Savage, Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyonce
Waylaid by the UGC adjustment, this song had quite further to grow as opposed to its stateside competitor, as its airplay hadn’t reached nearly the same baseline prior to the remix.
10 (+2). Rockstar, DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch
It doesn’t quite reach its debut peak of #8, but like in other English speaking markets, the song has rallied after its dip from the album debut.
Frequently Asked Questions About Hot 100 Predictions
Here's a list of answers to common questions we get.
1. Airplay is wrong. On Kworb, it shows 134M, but you only have it at 97M.
While both are rolling 7-day audience impressions from radio airplay, Billboard has a different way to calculate impressions (via Nielsen/MRC Data). We need to multiply Kworb's numbers by roughly 0.72. Impressions vary between songs due to format panel tracking differences between the two (Mediabase vs Nielsen), and the multiplier can range between 0.65 to 0.80, with virtually all songs between 0.69 and 0.77, and a large majority between 0.71-0.73.
2. Will x artist be credited because of the remix?
Billboard's rules require that a version of a song make up the majority of its points to be credited. "Old Town Road" had many versions, but the Billy Ray remix was most popular, and so that's the one that gets credited on the Hot 100. However, it's possible Billboard may allow exceptions in certain cases.
3. How do you make predictions and are you accurate?
There's an incredible amount of nuance that goes into making predictions. For a detailed thread on how predictions are made, please refer to the following threads created by a team member: https://pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/189542/billboard-chart-formula-point-calculations
For our predictions specifically, we average two team members' predictions (Lukas & smash) to smooth out flaws. This isn't perfect but almost always better than one set of predictions alone.
Our final predictions track record so far for the top 10 since we started averaging (position differences, where 0 is a perfect score):
April 11 chart: 0
April 18 chart: 0
April 25 chart: -2
May 2 chart: -4
May 9 chart: -2
4. Do you have access to the real data before the Hot 100 is revealed?
No, we only use publicly available data which is limited since it's not all of the data (e.g. Apple Music provides no streaming numbers, only positions).
1. Airplay is wrong. On Kworb, it shows 134M, but you only have it at 97M.
While both are rolling 7-day audience impressions from radio airplay, Billboard has a different way to calculate impressions (via Nielsen/MRC Data). We need to multiply Kworb's numbers by roughly 0.72. Impressions vary between songs due to format panel tracking differences between the two (Mediabase vs Nielsen), and the multiplier can range between 0.65 to 0.80, with virtually all songs between 0.69 and 0.77, and a large majority between 0.71-0.73.
2. Will x artist be credited because of the remix?
Billboard's rules require that a version of a song make up the majority of its points to be credited. "Old Town Road" had many versions, but the Billy Ray remix was most popular, and so that's the one that gets credited on the Hot 100. However, it's possible Billboard may allow exceptions in certain cases.
3. How do you make predictions and are you accurate?
There's an incredible amount of nuance that goes into making predictions. For a detailed thread on how predictions are made, please refer to the following threads created by a team member: https://pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/189542/billboard-chart-formula-point-calculations
For our predictions specifically, we average two team members' predictions (Lukas & smash) to smooth out flaws. This isn't perfect but almost always better than one set of predictions alone.
Our final predictions track record so far for the top 10 since we started averaging (position differences, where 0 is a perfect score):
April 11 chart: 0
April 18 chart: 0
April 25 chart: -2
May 2 chart: -4
May 9 chart: -2
4. Do you have access to the real data before the Hot 100 is revealed?
No, we only use publicly available data which is limited since it's not all of the data (e.g. Apple Music provides no streaming numbers, only positions).
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